The Ladder of Inference

This is the primary construction tool of many difficult conversations--especially those that never progress beyond the "what happened" dimension of the conflict.  In an earlier post I discussed the assumptions we make about one another regarding internal states.  We assume that we can read the internal states of others based on external data.  And many times we are simply wrong.

We have all climbed the Ladder of Inference many times.  You can see how the process works.  

I think of an incident in my first call.  The congregation had received a nice bequest.  They used it for some capital improvements on the church building and the parsonage.  I was trying my best to give all the reasons why this was a good thing.  I was being my most encouraging self.  I said to a couple of council members, "And when you get the next pastor, this parsonage will be even more attractive than it is now."

In hindsight I giggle and wince at how naive I was in that statement.  Within days every member of that small congregation was convinced that I was taking a call to another church.  They had been prematurely abandoned before, so they had some reasons to make their way up the ladder of inference.  An observation always takes place within a context and a history.

On the other hand, I had given no other evidence of desiring to go anywhere else.  That being said, the rumor mill slammed into high gear.  The phone was hot from the constant ringing.  By the next Sunday I had to stand up and make an announcement that as far as I knew I was not going anywhere.  If anyone had different information, I would like to know so that I could prepare appropriately.

We all had a good laugh and got on with our lives.  Of course, other journeys up the ladder of inference are not so benign.  People have lost jobs and whole careers because someone drew inaccurate conclusions from limited data.

What are the antidotes?

• Always test the data or the experience and ask yourself if your assessment reflects reality.  Check it out with a neutral third party whenever possible.
• Check your assumptions at the door and try to look at the facts with an open mind.
• When in doubt, check out your perceptions with the person in question.  Often your perceptions will not be right and might even be amusing.
• Be humble enough to concede that once in awhile you might not get it quite right.
• Resist the temptation to invent intentions.  Just ask what the other person intended.
• Never take serious action without first testing that decision with someone who has no dog in the fight.
• Always seek to go down the ladder rather than up.

Ladders are great for painters but bad for problem conversations.  Try to keep your feet firmly on the ground.